Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of gut microbiome-associated childhood overweight and obesity.

Childhood obesity is linked to maternal smoking during pregnancy. Gut microbiota may partially mediate this association and could be potential targets for intervention; however, its role is understudied. We included 1,592 infants from the Canadian Healthy Infants Longitudinal Development Cohort. Data on environmental exposure and lifestyle factors were collected prenatally and throughout the first three years. Weight outcomes were measured at one and three years of age. Stool samples collected at 3 and 12 months were analyzed by sequencing the V4 region of 16S rRNA to profile microbial compositions and magnetic resonance spectroscopy to quantify the metabolites. We showed that quitting smoking during pregnancy did not lower the risk of offspring being overweight. However, exclusive breastfeeding until the third month of age may alleviate these risks. We also reported that maternal smoking during pregnancy significantly increased Firmicutes abundance and diversity. We further revealed that Firmicutes diversity mediates the elevated risk of childhood overweight and obesity linked to maternal prenatal smoking. This effect possibly occurs through excessive microbial butyrate production. These findings add to the evidence that women should quit smoking before their pregnancies to prevent microbiome-mediated childhood overweight and obesity risk, and indicate the potential obesogenic role of excessive butyrate production in early life.

Organophosphate ester flame retardants and plasticizers in house dust and mental health outcomes among Canadian mothers: A nested prospective cohort study in CHILD.

Organophosphate ester flame retardants and plasticizers (OPEs) are common exposures in modern built environments. Toxicological models report that some OPEs reduce dopamine and serotonin in the brain. Deficiencies in these neurotransmitters are associated with anxiety and depression. We hypothesized that exposure to higher concentrations of OPEs in house dust would be associated with a greater risk of depression and stress in mothers across the prenatal and postpartum periods. We conducted a nested prospective cohort study using data collected on mothers (n = 718) in the CHILD Cohort Study, a longitudinal multi-city Canadian birth cohort (2008-2012). OPEs were measured in house dust sampled at 3-4 months postpartum. Maternal depression and stress were measured at 18 and 36 weeks gestation and 6 months and 1 year postpartum using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies for Depression Scale (CES-D) and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). We used linear mixed models to examine the association between a summed Z-Score OPE index and continuous depression and stress scores. In adjusted models, one standard deviation increase in the OPE Z-score index was associated with a 0.07-point (95% CI: 0.01, 0.13) increase in PSS score. OPEs were not associated with log-transformed CES-D (ß: 0.63%, 95% CI: -0.18%, 1.46%). The effect of OPEs on PSS score was strongest at 36 weeks gestation and weakest at 1 year postpartum. We observed small increases in maternal perceived stress levels, but not depression, with increasing OPEs measured in house dust during the prenatal and early postpartum period in this cohort of Canadian women. Given the prevalence of prenatal and postpartum anxiety and the ubiquity of OPE exposures, additional research is warranted to understand if these chemicals affect maternal mental health.

On the possibility of decolonising planetary health: exploring new geographies for collaboration.

Decolonial planetary health aspires to centre the diversity and importance of Indigenous thought and stewardship. In this Viewpoint, we explore research in planetary health across holistic worldviews and western scientific approaches. We base our examination of decolonising interventions in planetary health by exploring how global trajectories play out in British Columbia, Canada. A central part of this analysis is highlighting intercultural thinking to promote an anti-colonial, anti-racist, and reciprocal approach to climate change and global health inequities across geographical space and within planetary health discourse. Our perspective encompasses an asset-based examination, which focuses on the Indigenous scholarship in planetary health that is already underway and considers how rigorous engagement with epistemic and geographical diversity can strengthen and advance planetary health. This is a place-based response to planetary health, as British Columbia experiences climate catastrophes that are impacting whole communities, cutting through major transportation systems, disrupting supply chains, and creating a further burden on public health agencies and authorities that are spread thin by COVID-19 response. We argue for a progressive acknowledgment of decolonising work that is pushing research and practice in planetary health forward.

Natural Green Spaces, Sensitization to Allergens, and the Role of Gut Microbiota during Infancy.

The environment plays an instrumental role in the developmental origins of health and disease. Protective features of the environment in the development of asthma and atopy have been insufficiently studied. We used data from the CHILD (Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development) Cohort Study to examine relationships between living near natural green spaces in early infancy in Edmonton, AB, Canada and the development of atopic sensitization at 1 year and 3 years of age in a cohort of 699 infants, and whether these associations were mediated by infant gut microbiota (measured using 16s V4 amplicon sequencing) at 4 months. The Urban Planning Land Vegetation Index (uPLVI) map of the City of Edmonton was used to assess infants' exposure to natural spaces based on their home postal codes, and atopic sensitization was assessed using skin prink testing (SPTs) for common food and inhalant allergens. Our findings suggest there is a protective effect of natural green space proximity on the development of multiple inhalant atopic sensitizations at 3 years (odds ratio = 0.28 [95% CI 0.09, 0.90]). This relationship was mediated by changes to Actinobacteria diversity in infant fecal samples taken at 4 months. We also found a positive association between nature proximity and sensitization to at least one food or inhaled allergen; this association was not mediated by gut microbiota. Together, these findings underscore the importance of promoting natural urban greenspace preservation to improve child health by reducing atopic disease susceptibility. IMPORTANCE Our findings highlight the importance of preserving natural green space in urban settings to prevent sensitization to environmental allergens and promote early-life gut microbiota pathways to this health benefit. These findings support a mediating role of gut microbiome compositions in health and disease susceptibility. This study used unique, accurate, and comprehensive methodology to classify natural space exposure via a high-resolution topographical map of foliage subtypes within the City of Edmonton limits. These methods are improvements from other methods previously used to classify natural space exposure, such as the normalized density vegetation index from satellite imagery, which is not able to distinguish anthropogenic from green space. The use of these methods and the associations found between natural green space exposure and atopic sensitization outcomes support their use in future studies. Our findings also provide many avenues for future research including longer term follow up of this cohort and investigation of a causal role of reduced Actinobacteria diversity on atopic sensitization development.

GlobeCorr: interactive globe-based visualization for correlation datasets.

Motivation: Increasingly complex omics datasets are being generated, along with associated diverse categories of metadata (environmental, clinical, etc.). Looking at the correlation between these variables can be critical to identify potential confounding factors and novel relationships. To date, some correlation globe software has been developed to aid investigations; however, they lack secure, dynamic visualization capability. Results: GlobeCorr.ca is a web-based application designed to provide user-friendly, interactive visualization and analysis of correlation datasets. Users load tabular data listing pairwise variables and their correlation values, and GlobeCorr creates a dynamic visualization using ribbons to represent positive and negative correlations, optionally grouped by domain/category (such as microbiome taxa against other metadata). GlobeCorr runs securely (locally on a user's computer) and provides a simple method for users to visualize and summarize complex datasets. This tool is applicable to a wide range of disciplines and domains of interest, including the bioinformatics/microbiome and metadata examples provided within. Availability and Implementation: See https://GlobeCorr.ca; Code provided under an open source MIT license: https://github.com/brinkmanlab/globecorr.

Cumulative Impacts of Diverse Land Uses in British Columbia, Canada: Application of the "EnviroScreen" Method.

(1) Objectives: Cumulative impacts refer to the legacies of land use decisions on environmental, community and health values. New integrative impact assessment tools are required to assess cumulative impacts on diverse values to meet sustainability goals in the 21st century. In this contribution, the CalEnviroScreen methodology-a screening tool capable of merging environmental, socioeconomic and health data-is applied to Local Health Areas in British Columbia, Canada. (2) Methods: The CalEnviroScreen is a method that standardizes environmental, socioeconomic and health data to depict an indicator's percentile rank in the distribution of all units of analysis. The method combines indicators to measure four dimensions of pressure: environmental exposures, environmental effects, socioeconomic conditions, and sensitive populations (i.e., health outcomes). We create two versions of EnviroScreen: one following the CalEnviroScreen suite of indicators, and another that uses nuanced indicators to approximate the realities of industrial land uses present in British Columbia. BCEnviroScreen scores are plotted by race/ethnicity to understand potential racial inequities in cumulative exposures. (3) Results: The BCEnviroScreen has a greater likelihood of quantifying the cumulative impacts of diverse industries and land uses present across resource-dependent parts of the province, relative to the more urban-centric CalEnviroScreen indicator suite. Analyzing the distribution of BCEnviroScreen scores by race/ethnicity suggests that visible minority populations may be inequitably exposed to cumulative impacts in BC. (4) Conclusion: EnviroScreen tools hold significant potential to influence Canadian environmental health policy. This research demonstrates the applicability of the tool to British Columbia and other jurisdictions, illustrates how indicators can be tailored to better represent regional context, and shows how the tool can be used to screen for potential environmental health injustices.

Early Life Antimicrobial Exposure: Impact on Clostridioides difficile Colonization in Infants.

The relationship between antibiotic use and Clostridioides difficile (C. difficile) has been well established in adults and older children but remains unclear and is yet to be fully examined in infant populations. This study aimed to determine the separate and cumulative impact from antibiotics and household cleaning products on C. difficile colonization in infants. This study included 1429 infants at 3-4 months of age and 1728 infants at 12 months of age from the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) birth cohort. The levels of infant antimicrobial exposure were obtained from hospital birth charts and standardized questionnaires. Infant gut microbiota was characterized by Illumina 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene sequencing. Analysis of C. difficile was performed using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Overall, C. difficile colonized 31% and 46% of infants at 3-4 months and 12 months, respectively. At 3-4 months, C. difficile colonization was significantly higher in infants exposed to both antibiotics and higher (above average) usage of household cleaning products (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.50, 95% CI 1.03-2.17; p = 0.032) than in infants who had the least antimicrobial exposure. This higher colonization persisted up to 12 months of age. Our study suggests that cumulative exposure to systemic antibiotics and higher usage of household cleaning products facilitates C. difficile colonization in infants. Further research is needed to understand the future health impacts.

Associations between extreme precipitation, drinking water, and protozoan acute gastrointestinal illnesses in four North American Great Lakes cities (2009-2014).

Climate change is already impacting the North American Great Lakes ecosystem and understanding the relationship between climate events and public health, such as waterborne acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGIs), can help inform needed adaptive capacity for drinking water systems (DWSs). In this study, we assessed a harmonized binational dataset for the effects of extreme precipitation events (≥90th percentile) and preceding dry periods, source water turbidity, total coliforms, and protozoan AGIs - cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis - in the populations served by four DWSs that source surface water from Lake Ontario (Hamilton and Toronto, Ontario, Canada) and Lake Michigan (Green Bay and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA) from January 2009 through August 2014. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality and found extreme precipitation weeks preceded by dry periods increased the relative risk of protozoan AGI after 1 and 3-5 weeks in three of the four cities, although only statistically significant in two. Our results suggest that the risk of protozoan AGI increases with extreme precipitation preceded by a dry period. As extreme precipitation patterns become more frequent with climate change, the ability to detect changes in water quality and effectively treat source water of varying quality is increasingly important for adaptive capacity and protection of public health.

Assessing secondhand and thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure in Canadian infants using questionnaires, biomarkers, and machine learning.

BACKGROUND: As smoking prevalence has decreased in Canada, particularly during pregnancy and around children, and technological improvements have lowered detection limits, the use of traditional tobacco smoke biomarkers in infant populations requires re-evaluation. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated concentrations of urinary nicotine biomarkers, cotinine and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine (3HC), and questionnaire responses. We used machine learning and prediction modeling to understand sources of tobacco smoke exposure for infants from the CHILD Cohort Study. METHODS: Multivariable linear regression models, chosen through a combination of conceptual and data-driven strategies including random forest regression, assessed the ability of questionnaires to predict variation in urinary cotinine and 3HC concentrations of 2017 3-month-old infants. RESULTS: Although only 2% of mothers reported smoking prior to and throughout their pregnancy, cotinine and 3HC were detected in 76 and 89% of the infants' urine (n = 2017). Questionnaire-based models explained 31 and 41% of the variance in cotinine and 3HC levels, respectively. Observed concentrations suggest 0.25 and 0.50 ng/mL as cut-points in cotinine and 3HC to characterize SHS exposure. This cut-point suggests that 23.5% of infants had moderate or regular smoke exposure. SIGNIFICANCE: Though most people make efforts to reduce exposure to their infants, parents do not appear to consider the pervasiveness and persistence of secondhand and thirdhand smoke. More than half of the variation in urinary cotinine and 3HC in infants could not be predicted with modeling. The pervasiveness of thirdhand smoke, the potential for dermal and oral routes of nicotine exposure, along with changes in public perceptions of smoking exposure and risk warrant further exploration.

Association Between Gestational Exposure to Toxicants and Autistic Behaviors Using Bayesian Quantile Regression.

Autism spectrum disorder, which is characterized by impaired social communication and stereotypic behaviors, affects 1%-2% of children. Although prenatal exposure to toxicants has been associated with autistic behaviors, most studies have been focused on shifts in mean behavior scores. We used Bayesian quantile regression to assess the associations between log2-transformed toxicant concentrations and autistic behaviors across the distribution of behaviors. We used data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals study, a pan-Canadian cohort (2008-2011). We measured metal, pesticide, polychlorinated biphenyl, phthalate, bisphenol-A, and triclosan concentrations in blood or urine samples collected during the first trimester of pregnancy. Using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS), in which higher scores denote more autistic-like behaviors, autistic behaviors were assessed in 478 children aged 3-4 years old. Lead, cadmium, and most phthalate metabolites were associated with mild increases in SRS scores at the 90th percentile of the SRS distribution. Manganese and some pesticides were associated with mild decreases in SRS scores at the 90th percentile of the SRS distribution. We identified several monotonic trends in which associations increased in magnitude from the bottom to the top of the SRS distribution. These results suggest that quantile regression can reveal nuanced relationships and, thus, should be more widely used by epidemiologists.

Early life exposure to phthalates and the development of childhood asthma among Canadian children.

BACKGROUND: Studies have demonstrated an association between phthalate exposure and childhood asthma, although results have been inconsistent. No epidemiological studies have examined exposure during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between phthalate exposures in the home environment during the first year of life, and subsequent development of childhood asthma and related symptoms. METHODS: This study used a case-cohort design including 436 randomly selected children and all additional cases of asthma at 5 years (ntotal = 129) and recurrent wheeze between 2 and 5 years (ntotal = 332) within the CHILD Cohort Study, a general population Canadian birth cohort of 3455 children. Phthalate exposure was assessed using house dust samples collected during a standardized home visit when children were 3-4 months of age. All children were assessed by specialist clinicians for asthma and allergy at 1, 3 and 5 years. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between exposure to five phthalates and asthma diagnosis at 5 years, and recurrent wheeze between 2 and 5 years, with further stratification by wheeze subtypes (late onset, persistent, transient) based on the timing of onset and persistence of wheeze symptoms. RESULTS: Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) had the highest concentration in dust (mediansubcohort = 217 µg/g), followed by benzyl butyl phthalate (BzBP) (20 µg/g). A nearly four-fold increase in risk of developing asthma was associated with the highest concentration quartile of DEHP (OR = 3.92, 95% CI: 1.87-8.24) including a positive dose-response relationship. A two-fold increase in risk of recurrent wheeze was observed across all quartiles compared to the lowest quartile of DEHP concentrations. Compared to other wheeze subtypes, stronger associations for DEHP were observed with the late onset wheezing subtype, while stronger associations for di-iso-butyl phthalate (DiBP) and BzBP were observed with the transient subtype. DISCUSSION: DEHP exposure at 3-4 months, at concentrations lower than other studies that reported an association, were associated with increased risks of asthma and recurrent wheeze among children at 5 years. These findings suggest the need to assess whether more stringent regulations are required to protect children's health, which can be informed by future work exploring the main sources of DEHP exposure.

Natural environments in the urban context and gut microbiota in infants.

The biodiversity hypothesis that contact with natural environments (e.g. native vegetation) and biodiversity, through the influence of environmental microbes, may be beneficial for human commensal microbiota has been insufficiently tested. We aimed to study the association between living near natural environments in the urban context, and gut microbiota diversity and composition in young infants. Based on data linkage between the unique Urban Primary Land and Vegetation Inventory (uPLVI) for the city of Edmonton and 355 infants in the CHILD Cohort Study, infant exposure to natural environments (any and specific types, yes/no) was determined within 500 m and 1000 m of their home residence. Gut microbiota composition and diversity at age 4 months was assessed in infant fecal samples. Adjusted for covariates, we observed a reduced odds of high microbial alpha-diversity in the gut of infants exposed to any natural environment within 500 m [Shannon index aOR (95%CI) = 0.63 (0.40, 0.98) and Simpson index = 0.63 (0.41, 0.98)]. In stratified analyses, these associations remained only among infants not breastfed or living with household pets. When doubly stratifying by these variables, the reduced likelihood of high alpha-diversity was present only among infants who were not breastfed and lived with household pets [9% of the study population, Shannon index = 0.07 (0.01, 0.49) and Simpson index = 0.11 (0.02, 0.66)]. Differences in beta-diversity was also seen (p = 0.04) with proximity to a nature space in not breastfed and pets-exposed infants. No associations were observed among infants who were fully formula-fed but without pets at home. When families and their pets had close access to a natural environment, Verrucomicrobiales colonization was reduced in the gut microbiota of formula-fed infants, the abundance of Clostridiales was depleted, whereas the abundance of Enterobacteriales was enriched. Our double-stratified results indicate that proximity to a natural environment plus pet ownership has the capacity to alter the gut microbiota of formula-fed infants. Further research is needed to replicate and better interpret these results, as well as to understand their health consequences.

Associations of five food- and water-borne diseases with ecological zone, land use and aquifer type in a changing climate.

BACKGROUND: Food- and water-borne pathogens exhibit spatial heterogeneity, but attribution to specific environmental processes is lacking while anthropogenic climate change alters these processes. The goal of this study was to investigate ecology, land-use and health associations of these pathogens and to make future disease projections. METHODS: The rates of five acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGIs) (campylobacteriosis, Verotoxin- producing Escherichia coli, salmonellosis, giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis) from 2000 to 2013 in British Columbia, Canada, were calculated across three environmental variables: ecological zone, land use, and aquifer type. A correlation analysis investigated relationships between 19 climatic factors and AGI. Mean annual temperature at the ecological zone scale was used in a univariate regression model to calculate annual relative AGI risk per 1 °C increase. Future cases attributable to climate change were estimated into the 2080s. FINDINGS: Each of the bacterial AGI rates was correlated with several annual temperature-related factors while the protozoan AGIs were not. In the regression model, combined relative risk for the three bacterial AGIs was 1.1 [95% CI: 1.02-1.21] for every 1 °C in mean annual temperature. Campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis and giardiasis rates were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in the urban land use class than in the rural one. In rural areas, bacteria and protozoan AGIs had significantly higher rates in the unconsolidated aquifers. Verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli rates were significantly higher in watersheds with more agricultural land, while rates of campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis and giardiasis were significantly lower in agricultural watersheds. Ecological zones with higher bacterial AGI rates were generally projected to expand in range by the 2080s. INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest that risk of AGI can vary across ecosystem, land use and aquifer type, and that warming temperatures may be associated with an increased risk of food-borne AGI. In addition, spatial patterns of these diseases are projected to shift under climate change.

Association of use of cleaning products with respiratory health in a Canadian birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive longitudinal studies are important for understanding the complex risk factors, pathways, exposures and interactions that lead to the development and persistence of asthma. We aimed to examine associations between use of household cleaning products in early life and childhood respiratory and allergic disease using data from the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) Cohort Study. METHODS: We summed responses from parental questionnaires that indicated the frequency of use of 26 household cleaning products in the homes of 2022 children from this birth cohort when they were 3-4 months of age to create a cumulative Frequency of Use Score (FUS). We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess whether frequent compared with less frequent use was associated with recurrent wheeze, atopy or asthma diagnosis, as defined by the questionnaire and clinical assessments at age 3 years. Data were collected between 2008 and 2015. RESULTS: Children in homes with a higher frequency of use of cleaning products in infancy, as determined by an interquartile range increase, had higher odds of recurrent wheeze (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.64), recurrent wheeze with atopy (adjusted OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.16) and asthma diagnosis (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09-1.70), but no increase in the odds of atopy at age 3 years (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.96-1.35). Compared with the lowest tertile of FUS exposure, infants in the highest tertile had higher odds of acquiring asthma. Stratification of the results showed that females had higher ORs than males for all outcomes, although the p values for this sex difference did not reach statistical significance. INTERPRETATION: Frequent use of household cleaning products in early life was associated with an increased risk for childhood wheeze and asthma but not atopy at age 3 years. Our findings add to the understanding of how early life exposures to cleaning products may be associated with the development of allergic airway disease and help to identify household behaviours as a potential area for intervention.

Early life exposure to phthalates in the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) study: a multi-city birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined phthalate exposure during infancy and early life, critical windows of development. The Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) study, a population-based birth cohort, ascertained multiple exposures during early life. OBJECTIVE: To characterize exposure to phthalates during infancy and early childhood. METHODS: Environmental questionnaires were administered, and urine samples collected at 3, 12, and 36 months. In the first 1578 children, urine was analyzed for eight phthalate metabolites: mono-methyl phthalate (MMP), mono-ethyl phthalate (MEP), mono-butyl phthalate (MBP), mono-benzyl phthalate (MBzP), mono-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP), mono-(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (MEOHP), mono-(2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (MEHHP), and mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate (MCPP). Geometric mean (GM) concentrations were calculated by age, together with factors that may influence concentrations. Trends with age were examined using mixed models and differences within factors examined using ANOVA. RESULTS: The highest urinary concentration was for the metabolite MBP at all ages (GM: 15-32 ng/mL). Concentrations of all phthalate metabolites significantly increased with age ranging from GM: 0.5-15.1 ng/mL at 3 months and 1.9-32.1 ng/mL at 36 months. Concentrations of all metabolites were higher in the lowest income categories except for MEHP at 3 months, among children with any breastfeeding at 12 months, and in urine collected on dates with warmer outdoor temperatures (>17 °C), except for MBzP at 3 months and MEHP at 3 and 12 months. No consistent differences were found by gender, study site, or maternal age. CONCLUSIONS: Higher phthalate metabolite concentrations were observed among children in lower income families. Examination of factors associated with income could inform interventions aimed to reduce infant phthalate exposure.

Coal smoke, gestational cadmium exposure, and fetal growth.

BACKGROUND: Gestational cadmium exposure may impair fetal growth. Coal smoke has largely been unexplored as a source of cadmium exposure. We investigated the relationship between gestational cadmium exposure and fetal growth, and assessed coal smoke as a potential source of airborne cadmium, among non-smoking pregnant women in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, where coal combustion in home heating stoves is a major source of outdoor and indoor air pollution. METHODS: This observational study was nested within the Ulaanbaatar Gestation and Air Pollution Research (UGAAR) study, a randomized controlled trial of portable high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter air cleaner use during pregnancy, fetal growth, and early childhood development. We measured third trimester blood cadmium concentrations in 374 out of 465 participants who had a live birth. We used multiple linear and logistic regression to assess the relationships between log2-transformed maternal blood cadmium concentrations and birth weight, length, head circumference, ponderal index, low birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm birth in crude and adjusted models. We also evaluated the relationships between log2-transformed blood cadmium concentrations and the density of coal-burning stoves within 5000 m of each participant's apartment as a proxy of coal smoke emissions from home heating stoves. RESULTS: The median (25th,75th percentile) blood cadmium concentration was 0.20 (0.15, 0.29) µg/L. A doubling of blood cadmium was associated with a 95 g (95% CI: 34, 155 g) reduction in birth weight in adjusted models. An interquartile range increase in coal stove density (from 3.4 to 4.9 gers/hectare) surrounding participants' apartments was associated with a 12.2% (95% CI: 0.3, 25.6%) increase in blood cadmium concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Gestational cadmium exposure was associated with reduced birth weight. In settings where coal is a widely used fuel, cadmium may play a role in the putative association between air pollution and impaired fetal growth.

Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation. METHODS: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s. RESULTS: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models. DISCUSSION: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

Evaluation of random forest regression and multiple linear regression for predicting indoor fine particulate matter concentrations in a highly polluted city.

BACKGROUND: Indoor and outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are both leading risk factors for death and disease, but making indoor measurements is often infeasible for large study populations. METHODS: We developed models to predict indoor PM2.5 concentrations for pregnant women who were part of a randomized controlled trial of portable air cleaners in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. We used multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest regression (RFR) to model indoor PM2.5 concentrations with 447 independent 7-day PM2.5 measurements and 87 potential predictor variables obtained from outdoor monitoring data, questionnaires, home assessments, and geographic data sets. We also developed blended models that combined the MLR and RFR approaches. All models were evaluated in a 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The predictors in the MLR model were season, outdoor PM2.5 concentration, the number of air cleaners deployed, and the density of gers (traditional felt-lined yurts) surrounding the apartments. MLR and RFR had similar performance in cross-validation (R2 = 50.2%, R2 = 48.9% respectively). The blended MLR model that included RFR predictions had the best performance (cross validation R2 = 81.5%). Intervention status alone explained only 6.0% of the variation in indoor PM2.5 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted a moderate amount of variation in indoor PM2.5 concentrations using easily obtained predictor variables and the models explained substantially more variation than intervention status alone. While RFR shows promise for modelling indoor concentrations, our results highlight the importance of out-of-sample validation when evaluating model performance. We also demonstrate the improved performance of blended MLR/RFR models in predicting indoor air pollution.

Residential green space and pathways to term birth weight in the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) Study.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies observe associations between the amount of green space around a mother's home and positive birth outcomes; however, the robustness of this association and potential pathways of action remain unclear. OBJECTIVES: To examine associations between mother's residential green space and term birth weight within the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) study and examine specific hypothesized pathways. METHODS: We examined 2510 births located in Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Toronto Canada. Green space was estimated around mother's residences during pregnancy using Landsat 30 m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We examined hypothesized pathways of: (1) reduction of environmental exposure; (2) built environment features promoting physical activity; (3) psychosocial conditions; and (4) psychological influences. Linear regression was used to assess associations between green space and term birth weight adjusting first for a comprehensive set of confounding factors and then incrementally for pathway variables. RESULTS: Fully adjusted models showed non-statistically significant increases in term birth weight with increasing green space. For example, a 0.1 increase in NDVI within 500 m was associated with a 21.5 g (95% CI - 4.6, 47.7) increase in term birth weight. Associations varied by city and were most robust for high-density locations. For the two largest cities (Vancouver and Toronto), we observed an increase in birth weight of 41.2 g (95% CI 7.8, 74.6) for a 0.1 increase in NDVI within 500 m. We did not observe substantial reductions in the green space effect on birth weight when adjusting for pathway variables. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the need to further characterize the interactions between green space, urban density and climate related factors as well as the pathways linking residential green space to birth outcomes.